APPLICATION OF MARKOV ANALYSIS TO MANPOWER PLANNING IN A REFINERY: A CASE STUDY OF KADUNA REFINING AND PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY LIMITED (KRPC)
Publication Date : 01/08/2009
Manpower disposition in many organizations in Nigeria especially government owned establishments is not usually determined based on Job analysis and corresponding workforce requirements. The paper applies Markov Analysis to aggregate manpower requirements based on analysis of internal staff movements due to retirements, promotions and resignation in the maintenance department of Kaduna refining and Petrochemical Company Limited (K.R.P.C). Basic data on maintenance task duration, Management approved staff disposition, actual staff disposition and estimated maintenance staff requirements determined from manpower utilization analysis and internal staff movement formed the basis for the Markov Analysis and the determination of required workforce. Staff turnover estimated from historical records of staff movement is used as representative of probability transition to determine the number of staff in each category that would leave the system and the subsequent expected vacancies created. Markov analysis of the effects of internal staff movement is used to determine the required workforce and the number to be recruited or laid off.
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