Author(s) :

Nuraddeen Mukhtar Nasidi, Nura Jafar Shanono, Muazu Dantala Zakari.

Volume/Issue :

Abstract :

Rainfall erosivity is one of the key factors of soil erosion which is expected to change whenever climate variables change and have significant effects on soil conservation policies. It is crucial to identify the future trends of rainfall erosivity and its consequences on water resources in a tropical area where rainfall records are expected to continue to rise. This study aimed to simulate potential precipitations using Global Circulation Models (GCMs), predict erosivity, and determine its impact on water resources in Cameron Highlands. In this study, we used 14 GCMs, AR5 emission sce-narios, and two future projection periods. The erosivity factor was determined through the relationship between baseline rainfall intensity and Modified Fournier Index. The result shows a correlation coefficient of 96% between observed and simulated rainfalls. Similarly, the model validation indicated that MAE, SE, and RMSE for the cali-brated model are 0.1487, 1.3692, and 1.2499, respectively. The highest rainfall erosivity of 6,039 MJmmha-1hr-1yr-1 was projected to occur at the Tanah Rata catchment area located in the Southwestern part by the 2080s under the RCP8.5 scenario. Also, peak streamflow discharge through Ringlet River is expected to increase by 9.72% up to 110% to reach a peak value in December by 2080s under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. This study revealed a potential increase in rainfall erosivity and corresponding water resources that could be emerged due to climate change which requires appropriate conservation strategies.

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